A few happy thoughts, for a change

The last two games have hurt, to put it lightly. Two times going into the ninth with a 2-1 lead, two times blowing the save, two times losing on a walk-off to the Cubs, owners of the second-worst record in the National League, two times spoiling stellar starts by the starting pitcher.

But hey, let's not get too despondent. The Cards still hold a two-game lead in the NL Central (early season, yeah, I know), which will most likely be one of the weaker divisions in baseball. Four fifths of their starting rotation has an ERA under 2.50 (and we will discuss Wainwright later). St. Louis' team batting average of .271 is the highest in the NL by .009 points (places 2-5 are separated by .002). And seriously, this team still has won two out of the past six World Series. I mean seriously, we should feel spoiled, not having to remotely concern ourselves with anything like that "Our Time"stuff the Royals are doing. Plus, there are even some positives to be drawn from this game.

Adam Wainwright
As discussed in my first post on this blog, Wainwright was having a bit of an off year, to put it lightly. But  in last night's start, he pitched excellently - six innings, six hits, one earned run (which was the result of an atrocious call by the home plate umpire), seven strikeouts. He didn't have the best night in terms of throwing strikes (57:93 pitches), but looked very comfortable from the stretch and was able to step up in tight spots and contribute to the Cubs leaving nine men on base and going 1-9 with runners in scoring position (the one hit, the game-winner, came off Fernando Salas). His curveball was also fantastic tonight. He threw it 28 times, 17 for strikes, and often on the first or second pitch of the at-bat. It was actually his second most-utilized pitch behind his sinker, which he threw 34 times. Batters swung and missed at the curve five times (17.86%), the highest whiff percentage of any pitch. For the sake of comparison, in Wainwright's disastrous start April 19 against the Reds, he threw the curve only 17 times and only eight for a strike. Furthermore, the average horizontal break (in inches) of the curve was 9.25 last night, as opposed to 8.05 the 19th. It was a far better pitch last night, both in its movement and Wainwright's ability to control it. In fact, basically every pitch of Wainwright's broke more last night, and in significant amounts too (an inch or more as opposed to fractions). Simply put, Wainwright looked like his normal self, and despite the fact that he was robbed of a deserved win, this start should be great for his confidence and give him something from which to build.
Victor Marte

One of the newer faces in the Cards' pen, Marte didn't make the team in spring training but got the call when Scott Linebrink's shoulder started acting up. His ZiPS (R) projection, which doesn't take into account Marte's recent performance, pegged him to be downright awful in 2012. Highlights include a 4.75 ERA, .307 BABIP, 4.25 BB/9 and a 4.48 FIP, all of which are solidly below the league average. But Marte got a very quick 1-2-3 seventh inning last night, throwing six pitches for six strikes, and he's been surprisingly solid for the Cards so far this season. His BABIP is currently an excellent .136 and he has consistently thrown strikes, only walking two. His 5.57 FIP is a bit of a concern, but that's mainly due to the two home runs he has given up. His xFIP, which replaces actual home runs given up with a pitcher's fly ball rate multiplied by the league's average HR/FB rate, is a much more serviceable 3.67. The main concern with Marte is his HR/FB rate, as 28.6% of the fly balls he has given up have ended up over the fence. However, his BABIP being as low as it is seems to suggest that stat will eventually level off. The contact rates on Marte's pitches is also very good, sitting at a solid 74.5% overall with an even better outside pitch contact rate of 58.3%. He's clearly got stuff that can induce whiffs. If Marte keeps up his current performance, he can lock up a spot in a very competitive bullpen, whose makeup is likely to change when Carpenter comes back.

Matt Holliday
His average of .215 is still low. But so is his BABIP (.224), which means the low average stems largely from his hits not finding spaces between fielders rather than Holliday striking out a ton. For someone who hits the ball as consistently hard as Holliday, that number should end up rising soon, and with it his average. He has had a decent series in Chicago so far, going 2 for 3 with a double and triple Monday and hitting the go-(but not stay) ahead homer  last night. He might have been 1 for 5 overall, but the importance of that hit, the main reason for his .412 win probability added last night, outweighed the other at-bats. Holliday appears to be coming around, and I think he has a good chance of breaking out this weekend against the Brewers.

Note: statistics and PITCHf/x data from mlb.com, brooksbaseball.net and fangraphs.com.