Friday, April 27, 2012

Zack Cox and the "problem" of a deep team

Of all the Cardinals' recent draft picks, Zack Cox stood out to me the most at the time he was drafted. Not because he was hugely imposing physically or had a highlight video featuring him cranking moonshot after moonshot, but because of his raw numbers in college. He was drafted as a sophomore in 2010 out of Arkansas, and that season he set school records with a .429 average and 102 hits, gaining All-SEC First Team honors. That average is impressive as it is, but in a juggernaut conference such as SEC, with eight teams in the final ESPN/USA Today Coaches' Poll, it is especially good.

And for the most part, Cox has lived up to the expectations he set with his college performance. He had a very solid 2011, split between high-A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, where he hit .306 with an OPS of .797. The fact that he had 98 strikeouts to 40 walks isn't exactly a feel-good number, but nobody can really complain about his showing last season. However, Cox has had a very rough start to the season with AAA Memphis this year, straddling the Mendoza Line with a meager .203 average, greatly exacerbated by a 26.0 K%. But Cox is still on the Cards' 40-man roster and has shown obvious signs of improvement in his recent games with the Redbirds, getting a hit in the last seven, with multi-hit outings on April 24 and 26.

Chris Lee/St. Louis Post-Dispatch


Cox's path to the bigs is clogged at the moment, though. David Freese has gained the confidence of the management (and the hearts of the fans) at third base, and Daniel Descalso has shown that he's a capable fill-in when Freese has gone down with injuries. The possibility of converting Cox to a middle infield position isn't promising either, as Furcal, Greene and Schumaker are occupying those spots, and Kolten Wong appears to be on a fast track to St. Louis. Wong, by the way, is hitting .329 (sixth in the Texas League) in Springfield with an excellent .970 OPS. And just to make sure I'm covering all the bases here, Matt Carpenter/Lance Berkman have first base and the DH spot during interleague play will most likely be occupied by Allen Craig when he returns. So that leaves the Cardinals with someone who could turn out to be a very serviceable infielder, but with nowhere to put him.

One possibility is for the Cardinals to trade Cox. Though they are flush with infield prospects, the bullpen remains a weaker spot (the signing of Scott Linebrink supports that). Dealing Cox could allow them to take a chance on a younger, unproven arm with high upside or, if they court a team with limited infield depth - the A's or Blue Jays, for instance - they could get a deal for someone more at Cox's stage of development. Maybe even someone who just seems to have lost their way, like Brett Cecil. He was drafted 38th by Toronto in 2007 and has good stuff, including a fastball that has hit the low-mid 90s and a very good slider. He has popped in and out of the bigs in recent seasons and could be the next Cardinals revival project.

The team could also just keep Cox in the minors and watch him. His numbers in college and lower minor league levels have shown that he has very good pure hitting ability, and it could just be a matter of time before he comes around and starts putting up numbers to compete with the Cardinals' current infield contingent. Trading someone with as much promise as Cox due to there being too much depth could be seen as a very short-sighted move for the organization. Their bullpen might not be the best in the league, but it is also not preventing the Cardinals' from being a good team. Having someone like Cox waiting in the wings if disaster strikes supports sustainability within the organization.

Those are, in my view, some options the Cardinals have with Cox. Should I even be contemplating this? Am I completely off base? I'd be eager to hear your thoughts on this situation.

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