Inconsistency and why the Cardinals' brooms remain in the closet

When I was sitting in my dorm lounge today watching the Cardinals game, one of my friends mentioned, with palpable distress, how inconsistent the Cardinals have been this season. My immediate response, given their 3.5 lead in the division and possession of the third-best record, being the second-best team batting average, the third-best team ERA the best run differential (an astounding +62) in the MLB, was something like this. But after some thought and careful deliberation, I'm feeling more like this.

There is one thing the Cardinals haven't done, something that other, clearly inferior teams, such as the Indians, Marlins and Mariners, have. They have yet to sweep a series. The Cardinals have only lost one, a dubious set in Chicago where they dropped two of three to the Cubs, but have won all the others. However, they have yet to string together three wins against one team. As discussed previously in this excellent post on Viva El Birdos, the Cardinals' run differential suggests a far better record than they actually possess, and with their current differential even vaster than the one in the article, I suspect their third order record is even more lopsided now. But their actual record, the only one that matters, is still 16-9, still tied for second-best in the National League despite a run differential 52 runs better than the Dodgers, owners of the league's best record. That defies baseball logic.

The Cardinals will look to capitalize on Allen Craig's return.
Jeff Curry/US Presswire

With their hitting, pitching and fielding (.988, best percentage in the NL) all discounted, the reason for the Cardinals disparity between run differential and record can be narrowed down to inconsistency. Due to their general success and propensity for blowout wins, this inconsistency stays under the radar and out of the public mind, unlike teams such as the 2011 Red Sox. But it's still there: the Cardinals clobbered the Brewers in their division-opening series by scores of 11-5 and 9-3, but their offense seemed to disappear in a 6-0 loss. They put up 10 and 12 runs in the first two games of their just-completed series against the Pirates, then were stymied for three runs in the 6-3 series finale loss. They carried two ninth-inning leads against the Cubs but lost both to late rallies/untimely bullpen blowups. That series, despite being the only one the Cardinals have lost, has been their best chance for a sweep so far.

The hitting has been there, the pitching has been there (especially with Adam Wainwright improving) and therefore, the wins have been there. But those qualities seem to fluctuate quite wildly for the Cardinals, with the peaks giving them their winning record and impressive run differential and the valleys giving them some baffling losses and preventing series sweeps. There have been more peaks than valleys, keeping the fans happy and the media occupied. For the Cardinals to have a truly excellent record and and completely fulfill the potential they've shown so far, they're going to need to string together some impressive streaks and start sweeping series, as those are without a doubt the best ways to gain momentum. Allen Craig's return is definitely going to help, as is Lance Berkman's when he eventually comes back. Simply playing more games will allow the team to adjust to the Greene-Descalso-Schumaker carousel at second base and get used to Craig's presence in the lineup, and with greater familiarity can come greater consistency. That is what I believe is the key for this team - once the roster is straightened out after this season's myriad injuries, comebacks, send-downs and call-ups, the Cardinals can find their groove and take off.