The
Cardinals are hitting the crap out of the ball this year and they're hitting it
a long way, too. I talked about this in a previous post, so go there if you want a
more in-depth discussion of that, but offense is old news. What's new, however,
is Jon Jay. Lots of the "power" talk centered around Carlos
Beltran, David Freese and Yadier Molina, but not really Jay, the unassuming-looking
center fielder who throws funny. He's not really the one who comes to mind when
discussing the Cardinals' Backyard Baseball-style numbers (especially May 7)
this year. But look at the MLB league leaders in batting average and sitting at
fourth is The Chief Justice himself, hitting at a .381 clip. Due to his
shoulder injury from running into the center field wall like the balls-out
player he is, Jay has only played in 22 games, a little bit less than the other
league leaders, but still enough to qualify for the leaderboard.
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| Ed Andrieski/AP |
He hasn't
experienced a sudden transformation to slugger like Brian Roberts did in 2005,
either: Jay has only hit two home runs and has an ISO of .095. His .476
slugging percentage is largely a product of his average. So clearly, something
has changed in his approach. This is true on multiple fronts. For one, Jay is
swinging and missing considerably less this year. He has made contact on 89.7%
of his swings, considerably higher than 83.2% in 2011. This higher contact rate
is a result of Jay being more selective in what he swings at. He has swung at
42.1% of pitches he's seen this year, a drop-off from 47.0% in 2011. Jay's
plate discipline has improved. It hasn't improved in the more common sense of
him taking more walks, as his BB% of 6.4% is right on line with his career
number, but he's clearly become more adept at choosing his swings. This
selectiveness has manifested itself in how Jay has hit the ball. He's hitting
more line drives[1]
and fewer fly balls[2]
and more of those flies are leaving the yard.[3] He’s hitting the ball
harder because he’s saving his hacks for better pitches. And that point can
also be proven when we look at his PITCHf/x charts from Texasleaguers.com.
Looking at the pitches Jay swung at in 2011, it’s easy to see where all those choppers
to the left side of the infield came from. Pitchers pounded the low and outside
portion of the zone and while he did take many of those pitches, they also
comprised most of Jay’s swings. Notwithstanding the smaller sample size, he has
been much more selective this season. While he has fished for some pitches on
the lower outside corner, the general distribution is more centered and evenly
distributed. His chart showing where he has taken pitches indicates his ability
to hold off on balls to the outside and avoid weakly pulling pitches on the
ground. Due to this improved discipline, Jay has been spraying pitches all over the field with a shockingly even distribution.
With basically everyone in the
Cardinals’ lineup hitting well, Mike Matheny will have to wrangle with the
order when Lance Berkman returns to give at-bats to the people who deserve
them. If Jay keeps hitting the way he has been, he won’t be making Matheny’s
job any easier.
[1] 28.9% of batted balls, up
from 22.5% last year
[2] 19.7%, down from 23.3%
[3] 13.3% HR/FB rate, up from
11.5%.
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