Tuesday, May 15, 2012

David Freese and a tale of splits

David Freese started this season on an absolute tear befitting his performance in the World Series last fall. He hit .333 in April with five homers and twenty RBIs. He also had 22 strikeouts, but that can be overlooked. But after today's hellish two-GIDP performance, you might be thinking "this guy has sucked lately." And you'd be right. In May, Freese has experienced quite a severe drop-off. And one of the most striking parts of his statistical profile is his ineptitude at Busch Stadium. Freese's season so far is one of disparate splits.

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You would think that Freese would feel most comfortable at home, due to his status as a native St. Louisan and his mythic game six performance. And he might, but his production does not show that at all. Freese home average is a paltry .196 as opposed to .324 on the road. His BABIP* is .250 versus .373. Freese's hits just don't seem to be finding the holes that they do on the road. One thing he does have going for him at Busch is plate discipline; his BB/K rate is .58* at home and .28 on the road. That has allowed Freese's weighted runs created and weighted on base average to stay at serviceable levels. Another telling stat is Freese' batted ball rates. He is actually hitting a much higher percentage of line drives at Busch, 26.5%* of batted balls, than on the road, with just 16.1%. These figures seem to point to parts Freese's performance resembling Matt Holliday's early-season slump - hard-hit balls not finding gaps. So I guess we can take consolation in that. Either way, Busch has not been a friendly confine for Freese. 

Since the Cardinals have been at home for the majority of this month, those difficulties have been reflected in his overall performance in May. The bad has gotten worse for Freese - with a .180 average and .360 slugging percentage, he has seriously struggled to spark the Cardinals offense past the recently shaky pitching. His situational hitting this month has been appalling, as he has grounded into five double plays - including two today and an absolutely infuriating one in the May 11 game against the Braves, when, with the game tied, the bases loaded and one out in the 10th, Freese weakly grounded an 1-0 pitch that probably wasn't even a strike to short for a twin killing. It was awful and made me want to punch the TV. Again, Freese had doubled his walk total from the previous month despite playing six fewer games and he isn't striking out much either, so not everything has gone off a cliff for him. And looking at his pitch and spray charts on texasleaguers.com, Freese seems be having a tough time turning on inside pitches, resulting in his a large amount of fieldable grounders to the left side of the infield. It could be linked to lasting effects from his finger injury he suffered earlier this season or he has just lost a step. By comparing his pitch charts from April and May, one can see that he's been getting fewer inside pitches (his takes skew heavily to the outside of the plate) and he hasn't been converting the ones he has seen. 

Because this year's lineup is so deep, Freese hasn't been pressured to be a cornerstone and do everything himself. Lance Berkman's return will also soften the blow. If he doesn't pick his production up soon, though, he could very well see himself be platooned. Mike Matheny has set the precedent of being very open to tinkering with the lineup and wouldn't be afraid to utilize every inch of his depth chart.

*stats not current to May 16 due to fangraphs.com and baseballreference.com not being updated

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