Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Jon Jay and benefits of plate discipline

The Cardinals are hitting the crap out of the ball this year and they're hitting it a long way, too. I talked about this in a previous post, so go there if you want a more in-depth discussion of that, but offense is old news. What's new, however, is Jon Jay. Lots of the "power" talk centered around Carlos Beltran, David Freese and Yadier Molina, but not really Jay, the unassuming-looking center fielder who throws funny. He's not really the one who comes to mind when discussing the Cardinals' Backyard Baseball-style numbers (especially May 7) this year. But look at the MLB league leaders in batting average and sitting at fourth is The Chief Justice himself, hitting at a .381 clip. Due to his shoulder injury from running into the center field wall like the balls-out player he is, Jay has only played in 22 games, a little bit less than the other league leaders, but still enough to qualify for the leaderboard. 

Ed Andrieski/AP
He hasn't experienced a sudden transformation to slugger like Brian Roberts did in 2005, either: Jay has only hit two home runs and has an ISO of .095. His .476 slugging percentage is largely a product of his average. So clearly, something has changed in his approach. This is true on multiple fronts. For one, Jay is swinging and missing considerably less this year. He has made contact on 89.7% of his swings, considerably higher than 83.2% in 2011. This higher contact rate is a result of Jay being more selective in what he swings at. He has swung at 42.1% of pitches he's seen this year, a drop-off from 47.0% in 2011. Jay's plate discipline has improved. It hasn't improved in the more common sense of him taking more walks, as his BB% of 6.4% is right on line with his career number, but he's clearly become more adept at choosing his swings. This selectiveness has manifested itself in how Jay has hit the ball. He's hitting more line drives[1] and fewer fly balls[2] and more of those flies are leaving the yard.[3] He’s hitting the ball harder because he’s saving his hacks for better pitches. And that point can also be proven when we look at his PITCHf/x charts from Texasleaguers.com.

Looking at the pitches Jay swung at in 2011, it’s easy to see where all those choppers to the left side of the infield came from. Pitchers pounded the low and outside portion of the zone and while he did take many of those pitches, they also comprised most of Jay’s swings. Notwithstanding the smaller sample size, he has been much more selective this season. While he has fished for some pitches on the lower outside corner, the general distribution is more centered and evenly distributed. His chart showing where he has taken pitches indicates his ability to hold off on balls to the outside and avoid weakly pulling pitches on the ground. Due to this improved discipline, Jay has been spraying pitches all over the field with a shockingly even distribution.

With basically everyone in the Cardinals’ lineup hitting well, Mike Matheny will have to wrangle with the order when Lance Berkman returns to give at-bats to the people who deserve them. If Jay keeps hitting the way he has been, he won’t be making Matheny’s job any easier.  



[1] 28.9% of batted balls, up from 22.5% last year
[2] 19.7%, down from 23.3%
[3] 13.3% HR/FB rate, up from 11.5%. 

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