Jaime Garcia is a changed man...but for the better?

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When the Cardinals are lighting up opposing pitchers like Bryce Harper in high school (see: recent series vs. Arizona), their own pitching is under a little bit less scrutiny. So far, there's no reason for it to be, as the staff has the second in the MLB in ERA. However, something's been a little bit different this year. Jaime Garcia has been an extremely solid left-handed for the Cardinals the since 2010, providing excellent depth behind the bigger names of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. In my opinion, he would be the ace of many other MLB teams, having shown sparkling control and an uncanny ability to keep the ball down. But, while he has been far from "bad," with a 3.76 ERA, Garcia's numbers show a starkly different pitcher in 2012.

First is the K/9 rate. Garcia's number this year is 5.17, a sharp drop from 7.21 in 2011 and 7.27 in 2010. His BAA and opponent BABIP are also higher than they were in the last two seasons. Garcia's FIP is almost a full point lower than his xFIP, which can be attributed to his weirdly low HR/FB rate of 2.9%. I'm going to just chalk that up to good luck and expect that number to rise later in the season, because batters certainly aren't hitting the ball any less hard against him. The numbers indicate that Garcia's stuff just isn't as sharp this year. That's true for the most part(observe the differences in pitch movement between 2011 and 2012). His curveball is less sharp, and while his changeup has developed into an out pitch, his fastball's movement and velocity have dulled and his sinker has less speed and sink. That could certainly account for part of his decreased strikeout rate, but I found another difference in Garcia's form exacerbating his pitches' diminished bite. 

Compare the two pictures below.

These are charts visualizing Garcia's release point from the catcher's perspective. The first one applies to 2011 and the second to the current season. Both show little variation in Garcia's delivery, an attribute that has been a crucial part of his control. Notice the difference in the general location of the plots, though. The upper chart shows Garcia having a very over-the-top motion releasing the ball at a high point. He's no giant, but letting go of the ball that high can make Garcia's 6'2" frame seem a lot taller from the batter's perspective and the enhanced downward plane can spice up his 12-6 curve and make his sinker heavier. However, this year shows a pattern of release points more to the side and a bit lower.  While this change hasn't had a huge effect on Garcia's control, it has manifested itself in the diminishing  effectiveness of his pitches. Reverting his release point back to where it was in 2011 isn't a difficult change to make, and I think if Garcia can do it he'll see marked improvement in his performance. I can only hope that Derek Lilliquist frequents the blog.